The first long-range Avengers: Doomsday tracking is in, and it starts at $340 million. Box Office Theory’s new forecast has Marvel Studios’ next team-up opening to between $340 million and $369 million or more in North America when it arrives on December 18, with the top of that range putting Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s all-time record in play.
Brand New Day holds the domestic opening record with $360.1 million, a launch that began with an all-time preview record of $72 million.
Dunesday Could Set A New Weekend Record
Doomsday will not have the weekend to itself. Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part Three opens the same day, and Box Office Theory’s tracking has it opening to $91 million to $100 million or more. With the films already in theaters adding to the total, the December 18 to 20 weekend could clear $440 million.
That would beat the biggest overall weekend in box office history, which came just a few months ago. When Brand New Day opened alongside The Odyssey’s $51.1 million third weekend, the whole market took in $437.1 million. Before that, the record was $402.1 million, set in late April 2019 when Avengers: Endgame opened.
The forecast also expects the frame to easily become the biggest December weekend ever. That record still belongs to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, whose $248 million opening anchored a $313.3 million weekend in December 2015, on the same weekend on the calendar.
Why The Numbers Are So High
Box Office Theory points to strong traditional tracking, social media awareness, pre-sales and trailer views for both films. Both studios also put tickets on sale by the end of summer, giving fans months to lock in seats.
The release date helps as well. December 18 lands right as many schools and workplaces break for the holidays, and the site expects Christmas vacation for a lot of moviegoers to start with Thursday night previews rather than the following Monday.
There is still some caution built in. Avengers and Dune share a large fan base that leans male, and the scale of early interest in Doomsday makes comparisons with past holiday releases harder than usual. Word of mouth after opening night will decide how the film holds through the rest of the holidays.
Hexed Gets A Forecast Too
The same tracking report includes Walt Disney Animation Studios’ Hexed, which opens November 25. It is tracking for a three-day opening of $21 million to $31 million, with a pinpoint forecast of $23 million for the three days and $32.8 million over the five-day Thanksgiving frame, and a domestic total between $80 million and $160 million.
Tracking ranges can move a lot in the five weeks before Doomsday opens, so expect these numbers to shift as the date gets closer.
For all the Disney news without the clickbait make sure to follow our accounts! Facebook | Twitter | Threads | Instagram | TikTok
