Disney’s live-action Moana has set sail in theaters, but the early box office numbers suggest choppy waters ahead. The Dwayne Johnson and Catherine Laga’aia film opened with $4.5 million in Thursday previews, a soft start that has sent weekend projections tumbling well below where they began.
From $75 Million Hopes To The Mid $40s
The forecast has cratered over just a few weeks. According to Variety, the film was initially estimated to open between $60 million and $65 million, though some projections were far softer at around $40 million. Initial tracking had suggested the film could reach as high as $75 million, a number exhibitors steadily walked back to the high $40 million range as weak presales came into focus. Heading into the weekend, advance ticket sales sat at only about $4 million, and Deadline’s latest weekend estimates now peg the opening at $42 million to $46 million.
For context, those preview numbers land above Snow White and Dumbo but well below The Little Mermaid and Aladdin, and nowhere near the animated Moana 2, which posted $13.8 million in previews before its record-breaking Thanksgiving launch. The international rollout is projected to add another $70 million to $75 million, which likely puts the $130 million global start Disney was eyeing out of reach.
A $250 Million Budget Raises The Stakes
The soft opening is especially concerning given the film’s reported $250 million production budget, which does not include a hefty global marketing spend. Industry math puts the break-even point north of $600 million worldwide. A debut in the low $40 million range would leave Moana in the company of Disney’s less successful remakes like Dumbo and Snow White, rather than the studio’s triumphs such as Lilo and Stitch or Beauty and the Beast.
Timing appears to be the biggest factor. The live-action film arrives just two years after Moana 2 became a billion-dollar blockbuster and a decade after the original animated hit, leaving many observers to wonder whether it is simply too much Moana too soon. The reviews have not helped either, with the remake earning the worst Rotten Tomatoes score in franchise history. Compounding matters, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey claims every IMAX and premium large-format screen in exactly one week, meaning whatever Moana earns in those lucrative formats, it earns now.
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